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How Strong is the Confirmation of a Hypothesis by Significant Data?

Bartelborth, Thomas (2013) How Strong is the Confirmation of a Hypothesis by Significant Data? [Preprint]

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Abstract

The aim of the article is to determine how much a hypothesis H is actually confirmed if it has successfully passed a classical significance test. Bayesians have already raised many serious objections against significance testing, but in doing so they have always had to rely on epistemic probabilities and a further Bayesian analysis, which are rejected by classical statisticians. Therefore, I will suggest a purely frequentist evaluation procedure for significance tests, that should also be accepted by a classical statistician. This procedure likewise indicates some additional problems of significance tests. Such tests generally offer only incremental support of a hypothesis, although an absolute confirmation is necessary, and they overestimate positive results for small effects, since the confirmation of H in these cases is often rather marginal. This phenomenon leads in specific cases, for example, in cases of ESP-hypotheses, such as precognition, too easily to a significant confirmation. I will propose a method of how to evaluate and supplement significance tests so that we can avoid their epistemic deficits.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
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Bartelborth, Thomasbartelbo@uni-leipzig.de
Keywords: significance tests, Bayesianism, confirmation, likelihoodism, falsification, inference to the best explanation
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Dr. Thomas Bartelborth
Date Deposited: 11 Sep 2013 16:40
Last Modified: 11 Sep 2013 16:40
Item ID: 9994
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 11 September 2013
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9994

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