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Bayesian Orgulity

Belot, Gordon (2013) Bayesian Orgulity. [Preprint]

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Abstract

A piece of folklore enjoys some currency among philosophical Bayesians, according to which Bayesian agents that, intuitively speaking, spread their credence over the entire space of available hypotheses are certain to converge to the truth. The goals of the present discussion are to show that kernel of truth in this folklore is in some ways fairly small and to argue that Bayesian convergence-to-the-truth results are a liability for Bayesianism as an account of rationality, since they render a certain sort of arrogance rationally mandatory.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Belot, Gordon
Additional Information: Forthcoming in Philosophy of Science
Keywords: Bayesianism
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Formal Learning Theory
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Gordon Belot
Date Deposited: 14 Jun 2013 14:15
Last Modified: 14 Jun 2013 14:15
Item ID: 9834
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Formal Learning Theory
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 14 June 2013
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9834

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