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A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation

Glynn, Luke (2011) A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 62 (2). pp. 343-392.

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Abstract

The starting point in the development of probabilistic analyses of token causation has usually been the naive intuition that, in some relevant sense, a cause raises the probability of its effect. But there are well-known examples both of non-probability-raising causation and of probability-raising non-causation. Sophisticated extant probabilistic analyses treat many such cases correctly, but only at the cost of excluding the possibilities of direct non-probability-raising causation, failures of causal transitivity, action-at-a-distance, prevention, and causation by absence and omission. I show that an examination of the structure of these problem cases suggests a different treatment, one which avoids the costs of extant probabilistic analyses.


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Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Glynn, Lukelglynn@caltech.edu
Keywords: Probabilistic Causation; Probability; Causation; Token Causation; Transitivity; Action-At-A-Distance; Prevention; Preemption; Omissions
Subjects: General Issues > Causation
General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Dr. Luke Fenton-Glynn
Date Deposited: 08 May 2013 14:22
Last Modified: 08 May 2013 14:22
Item ID: 9729
Journal or Publication Title: British Journal for the Philosophy of Science
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Official URL: http://bjps.oxfordjournals.org/content/62/2/343.fu...
DOI or Unique Handle: https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/axq015
Subjects: General Issues > Causation
General Issues > Determinism/Indeterminism
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: June 2011
Page Range: pp. 343-392
Volume: 62
Number: 2
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9729

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