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Bayesian Confirmation from Analog Models

Beebe, Cameron and Poellinger, Roland (2017) Bayesian Confirmation from Analog Models. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Analog models can be used to investigate aspects of a target system we might not have easy empirical access to. Evidence from an analog model has, under certain strict conditions, been used to argue for the confirmation of a target theory (Unruh (2008), Dardashti et al. (2017)). We investigate what a Bayesian account of such confirmation might require, and illustrate the details by discussing a water-wave analog system of the quantum Casimir effect. We argue that the analogical reasoning involved in this case cannot be sufficiently expressed by traditional Bayesian networks, and therefore employ an extension of (causal) Bayes nets to more capably handle the case study. Our formalization of the concept of analogy provides a novel reconstruction of Bayesian confirmation from analog models, which crucially preserves the essential symmetry involved in analogies. Finally, we take our formal analysis of the Casimir effect case to shed new light onto theoretical pre-unification via analogical reasoning.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Beebe, Cameron
Poellinger, RolandRoland.Poellinger@outlook.com0000-0002-0487-4034
Keywords: analogical reasoning, causal inference, analogy, theory confirmation, Bayesian networks, scientific inference
Subjects: General Issues > Causation
General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Explanation
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Physics
Depositing User: Dr. Roland Poellinger
Date Deposited: 28 Jan 2024 11:09
Last Modified: 28 Jan 2024 11:09
Item ID: 23020
Subjects: General Issues > Causation
General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Explanation
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Physics
Date: August 2017
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/23020

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