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Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part II: The Justificatory Challenge

Harris, Margherita and Frigg, Roman (2022) Climate Models and Robustness Analysis – Part II: The Justificatory Challenge. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Robustness analysis (RA) is the prescription to consider a diverse range of evidence and only regard a hypothesis as well-supported if all the evidence agrees on it. In contexts like climate science, the evidence in support of a hypothesis often comes from scientific models. This leads to model-based RA (MBRA), whose core notion is that a hypothesis ought to be regarded as well-supported on grounds that a sufficiently diverse set of models agrees on the hypothesis. This chapter, which is the second part of a two-part review of MBRA, addresses the thorny issue of justifying the inferential steps taking us from the premises to the conclusions. We begin by making explicit what exactly the problem is. We then turn to a discussion of two broad families of justificatory strategies, namely top-down and bottom-up justifications. In the latter group we distinguish between the likelihood approach, independence approaches, and the explanatory approach. This discussion leads us to the sober conclusion that multi-model situations raise issues that are not yet fully understood and that the methods and approaches that MBRA has not yet reached a stage of maturity. Important questions remain open, and these will have to be addressed in future research.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Harris, MargheritaM.Harris2@lse.ac.uk
Frigg, Romanr.p.frigg@lse.ac.uk
Keywords: Robustness analysis, model ensemble, model agreement, independence, common structure, climate model, top-down justification, bottom-up justification, likelihood approach, independence approach, reliability independence, confirmational independence, explanatory approach.
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology
Specific Sciences > Environmental Science
General Issues > Evidence
General Issues > Models and Idealization
General Issues > Science and Policy
Depositing User: Roman Frigg
Date Deposited: 12 Aug 2022 14:40
Last Modified: 12 Aug 2022 14:40
Item ID: 21049
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Climate Science and Meteorology
Specific Sciences > Environmental Science
General Issues > Evidence
General Issues > Models and Idealization
General Issues > Science and Policy
Date: 2022
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/21049

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