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A Normative Comparison of Threshold Views Through Computer Simulations

Huang, Alice Chao-Wei (2022) A Normative Comparison of Threshold Views Through Computer Simulations. [Preprint]

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Abstract

The threshold view says that a person forms an outright belief P if and only if her credence for P reaches a certain threshold. Using computer simulations, I compare different versions of the threshold view to understand how they perform under time pressure in decision problems. The results illuminate the strengths and weaknesses of the various cognitive strategies in different decision contexts. A threshold view that performs well across diverse contexts is likely to be a cognitively flexible and context-dependent fusion of several of the existing theories. The results of the simulations also cast doubts on the possibility of a threshold view that is both simple enough to streamline our reasoning while also allowing us to form good action-guiding beliefs.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Huang, Alice Chao-Weialicealice.huang@mail.utoronto.ca
Keywords: credences, outright beliefs, ecological rationality, threshold view, computer simulations
Subjects: General Issues > Computer Simulation
General Issues > Decision Theory
Depositing User: Ms. Alice C.W. Huang
Date Deposited: 17 Jun 2022 02:29
Last Modified: 17 Jun 2022 02:29
Item ID: 20746
Subjects: General Issues > Computer Simulation
General Issues > Decision Theory
Date: 13 June 2022
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/20746

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