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On No-Miracles and the Base-Rate Fallacy

Dyck, Keith (2022) On No-Miracles and the Base-Rate Fallacy. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Colin Howson (2000) contends that the No-Miracles argument fails as an argument in support of scientific realism because it commits the base-rate fallacy. In response, Stathis Psillos (2009) has defended the argument by appealing to cases that involve conditional probabilities but where base-rate information can properly be ignored. Through an examination of these cases, I show that Psillos’s defense of the No-Miracles argument is inadequate and that the prospects for a purely probabilistic formulation of the argument are dim. I end by considering whether interpreting the argument as an inference to the best explanation might better serve the scientific realist, concluding that widespread acceptance of such a controversial approach is unlikely.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Dyck, Keithkeithdyck@ucsb.edu
Keywords: No-Miracles, Scientific Realism, Base-Rate Fallacy
Subjects: General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
Depositing User: Keith Dyck
Date Deposited: 20 Mar 2022 03:35
Last Modified: 20 Mar 2022 03:35
Item ID: 20356
Subjects: General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
Date: 16 March 2022
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/20356

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