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Infinite Frequency Principles of Direct Inference

Ackermans, Lennart B. (2022) Infinite Frequency Principles of Direct Inference. [Preprint]

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According to an infinite frequency principle, it is rational, under certain conditions, to set your credence in an outcome to the limiting frequency of that outcome if the experiment were repeated indefinitely. I argue that most infinite frequency principles are undesirable in at least one of the following ways: (1) accepting the principle would lead you to accept bets with sure losses, (2) the principle gives no guidance in the case of deterministic experiments like coin tosses and (3) the principle relies on a metaphysical property, ‘chanciness’, whose necessary and sufficient conditions are unknown. I show that a frequency principle that is based on the principal principle suffers from problems related to the definition of ‘chance’ or ‘chanciness’, which could lead to all three of the above problems. I introduce a version of the Infinite Frequency Principle that does not rely on a notion of chance or chanciness and does not suffer from any of these problems.

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Item Type: Preprint
Ackermans, Lennart B.0000-0003-0071-2270
Additional Information: Forthcoming in Synthese.
Keywords: Direct inference, Bayesianism, subjective probability, objective probability, principal principle
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Lennart Ackermans
Date Deposited: 03 Mar 2022 17:46
Last Modified: 03 Mar 2022 17:46
Item ID: 20284
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: February 2022

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