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Deliberation and Confidence Change

Heinzelmann, Nora and Hartmann, Stephan (2022) Deliberation and Confidence Change. [Preprint]

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Abstract

We argue that social deliberation may increase an agent's confidence and credence under certain circumstances. An agent considers a proposition H and assigns a probability to it. However, she is not fully confident that she herself is reliable in this assignment. She then endorses H during deliberation with another person, expecting him to raise serious objections. To her surprise, however, the other person does not raise any objections to H. How should her attitudes toward H change? It seems plausible that she should (i) increase the credence she assigns to H and, at the same time, (ii) increase the reliability she assigns to herself concerning H (i.e. her confidence). A Bayesian model helps us to investigate under what conditions, if any, this is rational.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Heinzelmann, Noranora.heinzelmann@fau.de0000-0003-4083-3739
Hartmann, Stephans.hartmann@lmu.de
Keywords: deliberation; credence; confidence; Bayesian updating; social epistemology
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology
Specific Sciences > Psychology > Social Psychology
Depositing User: Dr N C Heinzelmann
Date Deposited: 25 Jan 2022 05:13
Last Modified: 25 Jan 2022 05:13
Item ID: 20121
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Mathematics > Epistemology
Specific Sciences > Psychology > Social Psychology
Date: 17 January 2022
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/20121

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