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Approaching probabilistic and deterministic nomic truths in an inductive probabilistic way

Kuipers, Theo A.F. (2021) Approaching probabilistic and deterministic nomic truths in an inductive probabilistic way. [Preprint]

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Abstract

Theories of truth approximation in terms of truthlikeness (or verisimilitude) almost always deal with (non-probabilistically) approaching deterministic truths, either actual or nomic. This paper deals first with approaching a probabilistic nomic truth, viz. a true probability distribution. It assumes a multinomial probabilistic context, hence with a lawlike true, but usually unknown, probability distribution. We will first show that this true multinomial distribution can be approached by Carnapian inductive probabilities. Next we will deal with the corresponding deterministic nomic truth, that is, the set of conceptually possible outcomes with a positive true probability. We will introduce Hintikkian inductive probabilities, based on a prior distribution over the relevant deterministic nomic theories and on conditional Carnapian inductive probabilities, and first show that they enable again probabilistic approximation of the true distribution. Finally, we will show, in terms of a kind of success theorem, based on Niiniluoto’s estimated distance from the truth, in what sense Hintikkian inductive probabilities enable the probabilistic approximation of the relevant deterministic nomic truth. In sum, the (realist) truth approximation perspective on Carnapian and Hintikkian inductive probabilities leads to the unification of the inductive probability field and the field of truth approximation.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Kuipers, Theo A.F.T.A.F.Kuipers@rug.nl0000-0002-8612-3639
Keywords: probabilistic truth, the true probability distribution, deterministic truth, nomic truth, truth approximation, truthlikeness, verisimilitude, inductive probability, inductive logic, estimated distance from the truth
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Evidence
General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
General Issues > Theory Change
Depositing User: Dr. Theo Kuipers
Date Deposited: 02 Apr 2021 14:21
Last Modified: 02 Apr 2021 14:21
Item ID: 18882
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Evidence
General Issues > Realism/Anti-realism
General Issues > Theory Change
Date: 2021
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18882

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