PhilSci Archive

Credence—and Chance—Without Numbers (and with the Euclidean Property)

Maudlin, Tim (2020) Credence—and Chance—Without Numbers (and with the Euclidean Property). [Preprint]

[img]
Preview
Text
Credence (version 2).pdf

Download (569kB) | Preview

Abstract

Accounts of both rational credence and of objective chance have always confronted difficulties associated with events that are assigned “probability zero” by the usual Kolmogorov probability function used to model the situation. One sort of solution recommends extending the number field used to represent credences and chance to the surreals or hyperreals. But the correct solution—the solution that always respects the Euclidean property—is to eliminate numbers from the fundamental representation of credence and chance altogether in favor of a system of relations. This solution also sheds light on other paradoxes, such as the Banach-Tarski paradox and the St. Petersburg paradox.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Maudlin, Timtimmaudlin@JohnBellInstitute.org0000-0001-8394-7264
Keywords: objective chance, credence, Euclidean property, regularity, St. Petersburg paradox, Banach-Tarski paradox
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Mathematics
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Prof. Tim Maudlin
Date Deposited: 11 Nov 2020 05:07
Last Modified: 11 Nov 2020 05:07
Item ID: 18382
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Mathematics
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 10 November 2020
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/18382

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item