PhilSci Archive

A Formal Solution to Reichenbach’s Reference Class Problem

Thorn, Paul D. (2019) A Formal Solution to Reichenbach’s Reference Class Problem. [Preprint]

[img]
Preview
Text
A Formal Solution to Reichenbach's Reference Class Problem (PREPRINT).pdf

Download (665kB) | Preview

Abstract

Following Reichenbach, it is widely held that in making a direct inference, one should base one’s conclusion on a relevant frequency statement concerning the most specific reference class for which one is able to make a warranted and relatively precise-valued frequency judgment. In cases where one has accurate and precise-valued frequency information for two relevant reference classes, R1 and R2, and one lacks accurate and precise-valued frequency information concerning their intersection, R1 intersect R2, it is widely held, following Reichenbach, that no inference may be drawn. In contradiction to Reichenbach and the common wisdom, I argue for the view that it is often possible to draw a reasonable informative conclusion, in such circumstances. As a basis for drawing such a conclusion, I show that one is generally in a position to formulate a reasonable direct inference for a reference class that is more specific than either of R1 and R2.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Thorn, Paul D.thorn@phil.hhu.de
Keywords: Direct Inference, Reference Class Problem, Statistical Syllogism.
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Evidence
Depositing User: Dr. Paul Thorn
Date Deposited: 13 Sep 2019 05:37
Last Modified: 13 Sep 2019 05:37
Item ID: 16416
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
General Issues > Evidence
Date: 2019
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/16416

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item