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Do Bets Reveal Beliefs?

Baccelli, Jean (2017) Do Bets Reveal Beliefs? [Preprint]

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Abstract

This paper examines the preference-based approach to the identification of beliefs. It focuses on the main problem to which this approach is exposed, namely that of state-dependent utility. First, the problem is illustrated in full detail. Four types of state-dependent utility issues are distinguished. Second, a comprehensive strategy for identifying beliefs under state-dependent utility is presented and discussed. For the problem to be solved following this strategy, however, preferences need to extend beyond choices. We claim that this a necessary feature of any complete solution to the problem of state-dependent utility. We also argue that this is the main conceptual lesson to draw from it. We show that this lesson is of interest to both economists and philosophers.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Baccelli, Jeanjean.baccelli@gmail.com0000-0003-0275-0377
Keywords: beliefs, subjective probability, state-dependent utility, hypothetical preferences, revealed preference, decision theory, decision theory under uncertainty, philosophy of economics
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Economics
General Issues > Game Theory
Specific Sciences > Psychology > Judgment and Decision Making
General Issues > Logical Positivism/Logical Empiricism
General Issues > Operationalism/Instrumentalism
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Psychology
Depositing User: Jean Baccelli
Date Deposited: 17 Jul 2019 03:37
Last Modified: 17 Jul 2019 03:37
Item ID: 16223
Official URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-0...
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Economics
General Issues > Game Theory
Specific Sciences > Psychology > Judgment and Decision Making
General Issues > Logical Positivism/Logical Empiricism
General Issues > Operationalism/Instrumentalism
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Specific Sciences > Psychology
Date: 2017
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/16223

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