PhilSci Archive

Prediction versus Accommodation in Economics

Northcott, Robert (2018) Prediction versus Accommodation in Economics. [Preprint]

[img]
Preview
Text
INEM 6.w18.pdf

Download (307kB) | Preview

Abstract

Should we insist on prediction, i.e. on correctly forecasting the future? Or can we rest content with accommodation, i.e. empirical success only with respect to the past? I apply general considerations about this issue to the case of economics. In particular, I examine various ways in which mere accommodation can be sufficient, in order to see whether those ways apply to economics. Two conclusions result. First, an entanglement thesis: the need for prediction is entangled with the methodological role of orthodox economic theory. Second, a conditional predictivism: if we are not committed to orthodox economic theory, then (often) we should demand prediction rather than accommodation – against most current practice.


Export/Citation: EndNote | BibTeX | Dublin Core | ASCII/Text Citation (Chicago) | HTML Citation | OpenURL
Social Networking:
Share |

Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Northcott, Robertr.northcott@bbk.ac.uk
Additional Information: forthcoming in Journal of Economic Methodology
Keywords: prediction; accommodation; economics; explanation; confirmation; models
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Economics
General Issues > Explanation
Depositing User: Dr Robert Northcott
Date Deposited: 27 Dec 2018 00:11
Last Modified: 27 Dec 2018 00:11
Item ID: 15506
Subjects: General Issues > Confirmation/Induction
Specific Sciences > Economics
General Issues > Explanation
Date: 26 December 2018
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/15506

Monthly Views for the past 3 years

Monthly Downloads for the past 3 years

Plum Analytics

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item