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An Antidote for Hawkmoths: On the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling

Navas, Alejandro and Nabergall, Lukas and Winsberg, Eric (2017) An Antidote for Hawkmoths: On the prevalence of structural chaos in non-linear modeling. [Preprint]

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Abstract

This paper deals with the question of whether uncertainty regarding model structure, especially in climate modeling, exhibits a kind of ``chaos.'' Do small changes in model structure, in other words, lead to large variations in ensemble predictions? More specifically, does model error destroy forecast skill faster than the ordinary or ``classical" chaos inherent in the real-world attractor? In some cases, the answer to this question seems to be ``yes." But how common is this state of affairs? And are there precise mathematical results that can help us answer this question? We examine some efforts in the literature to answer this last question in the affirmative and find them to be unconvincing.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Navas, Alejandronavasa@mail.usf.edu
Nabergall, Lukaslnabergall@mail.usf.edu
Winsberg, Ericeric.winsberg@gmail.com
Keywords: Climate Science, Structural Stability, Hawkmoth Effect, Predictability, Dynamical Systems.
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Complex Systems
Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences
Specific Sciences > Physics
Depositing User: Dr Eric Winsberg
Date Deposited: 27 Aug 2018 14:21
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2018 14:21
Item ID: 14979
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Complex Systems
Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences
Specific Sciences > Physics
Date: 22 June 2017
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/14979

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