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Assessing climate model projections: state of the art and philosophical reflections

Katzav, Joel and Dijkstra, Henk and de Laat, Jos (2012) Assessing climate model projections: state of the art and philosophical reflections. [Preprint]

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Abstract

The present paper draws on climate science and the philosophy of science in order to evaluate climate-model-based approaches to assessing climate projections. We analyze the difficulties that arise in such assessment and outline criteria of adequacy for approaches to it. In addition, we offer a critical overview of the approaches used in the IPCC working group one fourth report, including the confidence building, Bayesian and likelihood approaches. Finally, we consider approaches that do not feature in the IPCC reports, including three approaches drawn from the philosophy of science. We find that all available approaches face substantial challenges, with IPCC approaches having as a primary source of difficulty their goal of providing probabilistic assessments.


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Item Type: Preprint
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Katzav, Joeluqjkatza@uq.edu.au0000-0003-4924-8464
Dijkstra, Henk
de Laat, Jos
Keywords: Epistemology of climate models; climate modelling; climate model projections
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Depositing User: Dr. Joel Katzav
Date Deposited: 15 Jul 2018 22:52
Last Modified: 15 Jul 2018 22:52
Item ID: 14867
Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/...
DOI or Unique Handle: doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsb.2012.07.002
Subjects: Specific Sciences > Earth Sciences
General Issues > Models and Idealization
Date: July 2012
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/14867

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