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Don't look now

Ahmed, Arif and Salow, Bernhard (2017) Don't look now. [Preprint]

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Good’s Theorem is the apparent platitude that it is always rational to ‘look before you leap’: to gather (reliable) information before making a decision when doing so is free. We argue that Good’s Theorem is not platitudinous and may be false. And we argue that the correct advice is rather to ‘make your act depend on the answer to a question’. Looking before you leap is rational when, but only when, it is a way to do this.

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Item Type: Preprint
Keywords: Good's Theorem, Decision theory
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Depositing User: Arif Ahmed
Date Deposited: 07 Mar 2018 15:19
Last Modified: 07 Mar 2018 15:19
Item ID: 14439
Official URL:
DOI or Unique Handle: doi/10.1093/bjps/axx047/4098120
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Date: 17 August 2017

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