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Probabilistic opinion pooling generalised. Part two: the premise-based approach

Dietrich, Franz and List, Christian (2017) Probabilistic opinion pooling generalised. Part two: the premise-based approach. Social Choice and Welfare.

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Abstract

How can several individuals’ probability functions on a given σ-algebra of events be aggregated into a collective probability function? Classic approaches to this problem usually require ‘event-wise independence’: the collective probability for each event should depend only on the individuals’ probabilities for that event. In practice, however, some events may be ‘basic’ and others ‘derivative’, so that it makes sense first to aggregate the probabilities for the former and then to let these constrain the probabilities for the latter. We formalize this idea by introducing a ‘premise-based’ approach to probabilistic opinion pooling, and show that, under a variety of assumptions, it leads to linear or neutral opinion pooling on the ‘premises’.


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Item Type: Published Article or Volume
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCID
Dietrich, Franz
List, Christian
Keywords: Probabilistic opinion pooling, judgment aggregation, subjective probability, premise-based aggregation
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Economics
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Depositing User: Christian List
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2017 13:14
Last Modified: 11 Apr 2017 13:14
Item ID: 12983
Journal or Publication Title: Social Choice and Welfare
Official URL: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00355-01...
DOI or Unique Handle: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00355-017-1035-y
Subjects: General Issues > Decision Theory
Specific Sciences > Economics
Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics
Date: 2017
URI: https://philsci-archive-dev.library.pitt.edu/id/eprint/12983

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